ilmscore | US Debt Default Predictions

N/A

Accuracy

Recent Predictions

Total: 4

Correct: 1

Incorrect: 0

Pending: 3

Unrated: 0

Prediction

Author

Predicted at

Status

Video

Predicted that the US government will not default on its debt.

"whether or not the government's going to default on their debt because that's just not going to happ..."

Sep 29, 2025

Correct

Surging treasury bills indicate an increased, albeit small, risk of the US missing debt deadlines, which would be disastrous.

"Treasury bills which are essentially loans to the US government are surging signaling a higher risk ..."

Apr 24, 2023

Pending

A US debt limit breach would result in the first-ever default, causing global financial chaos.

"breaching the debt limit would lead to a first ever default for the United States creating Financial..."

Apr 24, 2023

Pending

The market currently estimates a 2% chance of US debt default, the highest recorded.

"today the market believes that there is a two percent chance of them not agreeing and defaulting on ..."

Apr 24, 2023

Pending